Research from CIFS engages with themes of broad societal relevance, such as the long-term implications of contemporary geopolitics, the impact of artificial intelligence on the labour market, or the role that public perceptions of the future play in present-day decision-making. We hold scientific rigour and practical usefulness as equal obligations, and publish our findings openly in reports, policy papers, peer-reviewed journal articles, and FARSIGHT, our international print magazine.

Megatrends are high-level drivers shaping societies over the long term. They are anchor points for the forward progression of history that provide relative certainty in a principally uncertain world. Megatrends form the bedrock of futures work. In scenario analysis, they serve as the starting point, providing a bearing position onto which analysts layer less certain, shorter-term trends. For long-term future scenarios, inherently more uncertain and speculative, few tools carry the same weight.  

Yet despite their usefulness, understandings of megatrends vary greatly. As megatrends have been popularised and institutionalised across many contexts, they have also become subject to arbitrary application and conceptual inflation. Among foresight professionals, the term is increasingly treated with caution.

In the upcoming CIFS Megatrends publication, we propose an updated definition which better emphasises the role megatrends as phenomena with durable directional patterns, longevity through structural embeddedness, historical specificity (as opposed to phenomena that are cyclical or transhistorical in nature), and resilience to short-term decision making and sudden events. We believe that this updated definition fulfils the need for analytical rigour while also achieving practical usefulness and adaptability.